------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statfax, Volume 12, Issue 2 Northeastern Illinois Chapter of the American Statistical Association Summer 1997 SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND MULTIPLE EVENT DATA Our thirteenth annual workshop will be held on Thursday, June 19 from 9:00 a.m. - 4:30 p.m. at the North Shore Doubletree Hotel (formerly the North Shore Hilton). The general topic of this year's exciting workshop, entitled "Extensions of the Cox Model, with Emphasis on Multiple Event Data", is survival analysis. It will be presented by Dr. Terry Therneau of the Mayo Clinic. During the last few years the survival analysis software available in several of the standard statistical packages has experienced a major increment in functionality, no longer limited to the triad of Kaplan- Meier curves, logrank tests, and simple Cox models. Many of these new techniques can be formulated as extensions or enhancements to the standard Cox regression programs such as phreg (SAS). A review of the standard Cox model will precede discussion of its extensions. The theory behind many of these methods is based on the formulation of the problem in terms of counting processes. The theoretical results in both asymptotic and small sample behavior are well recognized and of significant practical worth. However, many of the techniques are not utilized often because of the perception that specialized programming or software is required. The exposition will focus on three aspects: heuristic explanations of the methods, actual data examples that utilize each of them, and SAS and/or S-Plus code to implement the examples. Particular emphasis is given to graphical diagnostics and summaries, and mathematical detail is supplied only when necessary. The main focus of the workshop will be on the necessary tools for analysis of multiple event data. The earlier sections of the talk introduce background techniques that are necessary to compute the fits. Some examples of multiple event data are: repeated infarctions in cardiac patients, multiple recurrent infections in immuno-compromised children, competing risks, joint analysis of both time-to-death and time-to-recurrence in cancer trials, familial studies (here the unit of risk is a family, multiple members might have events), and semi- Markov processes, such as repeated transitions between jail/shelter/ street for homeless persons. In more detail, topics will include (i) a review of the standard Cox model, (ii) the counting process form of a Cox model, and its use for left truncation, disjoint intervals of risk, time dependent covariates, time dependent strata, and multiple time scales, (iii) the use of residuals for assessment of leverage, (iv) robust variance estimation, and (v) the analysis of multiple events per subject, including marginal models, special time-dependent covariates, and random effects (frailty) models. Dr. Therneau will also be prepared to include other topics in survival analysis and extending the Cox model "by vote" of the audience. These include various types of residuals for Cox models and what they can be used to test, estimation of functional form, and time-dependent coefficient models, which can be used as a test for proportional hazards. However, time spent on such topics would sacrifice depth and/or completeness with respect to the main area of emphasis, multiple event data, which in Dr. Therneau's experience generates the most interest and debate. Dr. Therneau received a Ph.D. in statistics from Stanford University in 1983. He spent two years on the faculty at the University of Rochester (New York) before joining the Mayo Clinic in Rochester (Minnesota) in 1985. His current position at the Mayo Clinic is Head of the Section of Biostatistics, a department of over 100 people. He is internationally known for his work in survival analysis and his clearly presented classes/workshops on this topic. Don't miss this excellent workshop! Please register by 4PM on Thursday, June 12. - Art Roth ------------------------------------------------------------------------ WHAT'S FOR LUNCH? An extensive buffet will be served at The Windows Restaurant, located on the 12th floor of the hotel. At the luncheon, if an attendee orders an entree or drink which has not been prearranged through Imke Janssen, then NIC/ASA will bill the attendee appropriately. - Audrey Hutchcraft ------------------------------------------------------------------------ PRESIDENT'S REPORT: 1997 SPRING SURVEY RESULTS This report presents a summary of responses to the recent Northeastern Illinois Chapter Meeting Format Survey, administered at the spring meeting in April 1997. This survey was conducted to provide information on members' preferences and ideas for NIC meeting topics, formats, and locations. Sixty-four (64) members completed the survey. MEETING NOTIFICATION: Most of the respondents (75%) at the 1997 spring meeting said they received meeting notification in Statfax, the NIC-ASA newsletter. Another 17% received the information from co-workers or friends, and 5% saw the meeting notice posted on a department bulletin board. 3% reported other means of notification. We encourage members to continue to share NIC meeting information with colleagues who may not be members of our chapter. Also, if your department has a central bulletin board, please consider making a copy of the meeting notice and posting it. REASONS FOR ATTENDING: Many respondents listed more than one reason for attending the meeting. The most common reason was topic(s) (86%), followed by speaker(s) (59%), meeting format (41%), and location (36%). FUTURE TOPICS OF INTEREST: The topics of greatest interest were categorical data analysis (65%) and survival analysis (63%). (Please see the lead article of this newsletter for detailed information about the NIC summer workshop on this topic.) Repeated measures analysis (57%), generalized linear models (51%), nonparametric regression analysis (48%), and techniques for missing data (48%) were other topics of high interest. There was also substantial interest in crossover studies (41%), non-linear regression analysis (38%), design of experiments (37%), bootstrapping techniques (33%), meta analysis (32%), and statistics websites on the Internet (30%). The interest level for the remaining topics ranged from 8% to 27%. MEETING ATTENDANCE: 11% of the respondents would attend more than 3 meetings per year; 27% would attend 3 or fewer meetings per year. Most respondents indicated that their meeting attendance would depend on the topics and speakers (62%). MEETING FORMATS: Most people indicated more than one format of interest. Those of highest interest were: Optional luncheon, 2-3 speakers, different topics (82%); Workshop, full-day, 1 topic (69%); and Optional luncheon, 2-3 speakers, 1 topic (63%). There was also some interest in new formats such as an afternoon meeting with light snacks (42%), morning meeting with continental breakfast (26%), and panel discussion (24%). MEETING LOCATION: The most common preference for meeting location was local hotels (84%), but 66% also indicated several local universities which would be good meeting places. COMMITTEE INVOLVEMENT: Several individuals have indicated interest in one or more committees of the NIC-ASA. We are definitely looking to expand the involvement of our members at the committee level, and have begun contacting interested individuals. We thank everyone who completed the questionnaire. It is essential to have as much input as possible in order to provide quality programs for our members. Additional copies of the survey may be obtained by contacting me at (847)832-7549 or . - Molly Walsh ------------------------------------------------------------------------ TREASURER'S REPORT (5/7/97) Balance 1/1/97 $5423.07 INCOME 1997 Spring Meeting/Memberships 2625.00 Bank Interest 27.66 Total Income $2652.66 EXPENSES Mailing (Spring Newsletter) 37.12 Microsoft Publisher Software 80.99 Supplies (name tags, stamps) 11.41 1997 Spring meeting 2275.64 Mailing permit 85.00 Total Expenses $2490.16 Balance 5/7/97 $5585.57 1997 Membership: 81 (74 regular, 7 student) - Imke Janssen ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ADOPT-A-SCHOOL UPDATE Jim Mellon and I met with an organization called C.A.P.S. (Consortium for Teachers of Advanced Placement Statistics) at Niles West High School in April. This is an organization of teachers who teach the Advanced Placement Statistics in area high schools. Many of them are very excited about our members visiting their classes to talk about careers in statistics. They are also interested in having their classes take tours of local industries and laboratories that use statistics. If you or your organization would like to take part in this exciting opportunity, contact me at (847) 925-6232 or . - Carole Bernett ------------------------------------------------------------------------ JOIN US ON THE WEB! Remember to check out the NIC-ASA homepage on the internet, at: http://homepage.interaccess.com/~mlcarn/nic.htm Special thanks to Mike Carniello, for his devoted effort in updating the homepage. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ OFFICERS & COMMITTEE CHAIRS PRESIDENT AND CHAPTER REPRESENTATIVE Molly Walsh (847) 832-7549 mwalsh@cap.org PRESIDENT-ELECT AND PROGRAM CHAIR Art Roth (847) 982-4775 ajroth@skcla.monsanto.com SECRETARY Dorothy Dunlop (847) 467-1622 ddunlop@nwu.edu TREASURER Imke Janssen (847) 491-0691 ijanssen@bayes.stats.nwu.edu PAST-PRESIDENT Mike Carniello (847) 982-8750 mlcarn@searle.monsanto.com ARRANGEMENTS Audrey Hutchcraft (847) 270-5393 hutchca@baxter.com AWARDS AND RECOGNITION Prof. A. S. Hedayat (312) 996-4831 hedayat@uic.edu COMMUNITY ACTIVITIES Paul Coe (847) 524-6640 coepaul@email.rosary.edu MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY Donna Kowalski (847) 982-8533 dlkowa@searle.monsanto.com NEWSLETTER EDITOR Terry Walsh (630) 307-1112 walsh29@mail.idt.net OUTREACH COMMITTEE Lawrence Lin (847) 270-5394 linl@baxter.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statfax is published three times a year, in Spring, Summer and Fall, by the Northeastern Illinois Chapter of the American Statistical Association. Statfax welcomes letters and material for articles from its readers. ADDRESS CORRESPONDENCE TO: Terry Walsh, Newsletter Editor 255 E. Lake Street, Room 313 Bloomingdale, IL 60108 email: walsh29@mail.idt.net PLEASE SEND ADDRESS CHANGES TO: Donna Kowalski, Membership Directory Statistics Department A-1E 4901 Searle Parkway Skokie, IL 60077 email: dlkowa@searle.monsanto.com The Chapter's purpose, as stated in its Constitution, is "to foster statistics and its applications and promote the interests of the statistical profession...". Accordingly, diverse views are presented. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the officers or the policies of the Chapter.