STATFAX (Fall Issue, Volume 12, Number 3) IMPUTING AUDIENCE, BOX-COX TRANSFORMATIONS, & BAYESIAN METHOD OF MOMENTS The Fall meeting on Thursday, November 13 at the Deerfield Hyatt Hotel will feature talks by three stimulating speakers. Ms. Cheryl Bergeon of Nielsen Media Research will speak on "Imputation of Missing Audience in Nielsen Station Index (NSI) Diaries". NSI periodically mails diaries to many U.S. households. The diarykeeper is supposed to indicate (i) when the television is on and to what channel/program it is tuned, as well as (ii) which people are watching. Unfortunately, (ii) is often omitted, necessitating statistical imputation of the audience based on general viewing patterns. The desired end result is a completed person-by-person accounting of viewing. Hence many of the approaches to missing data suggested in the statistical survey research literature, ranging from ignoring observations with incomplete data to reporting an overall average based on imputing multiple responses, are unsatisfactory for this application. Available statistical techniques are also restricted by tight timimg issues associated with production of the Viewers In Profile (VIP) report, precluding any hands-on approaches to the imputation of missing audience in NSI diaries. The proposed solution is an automated logistic regression approach to building imputation models. Ms. Bergeon received an M.S. in statistics from the University of Florida in 1985 and has been with Nielsen Media Research (and its predecessors via name changes) ever since. She has held various titles, until 1989 as a statistician and since then as a director. She is currently Director of Statistical Research, with responsibility for Cable and Local Broadcast Operations. Dr. Sue Leurgans of Rush Presbyterian-St. Luke's Medical Center will present a talk entitled, "Transformations: Black Magic?" Various methods for selecting a Box-Cox transformation (power) parameter are applied to a large data set (EMG data in motor control). Because the data set contains many replications, it is relatively easy to see what is going on. One of four standard methods for selecting the transformation parameter breaks down. The intent is to demonstrate the effectiveness of transformations without triggering clinician anxieties about data-snooping. Dr. Leurgans received an A.B. from Princeton University, followed by a Ph.D. from Stanford University in 1978, both in statistics, during which time she was a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellow and a National Institute of Health Trainee. Since then, she has held academic positions at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the Wisconsin Clinical Cancer Center, the University of Washington, The Ohio State University, and the University of Chicago. Her current position, which she has held since 1992, is Professor and Director, Section of Biostatistics, Dept. of Preventive Medicine at Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke's Medical Center. Dr. Leurgans has authored or co-authored at least 34 papers in well known statistical and medical journals. Dr. Arnold Zellner of the University of Chicago will speak on "The Bayesian Method of Moments" (BMOM), which was first proposed and applied by Dr. Zellner in 1994. Use of the BMOM will be illustrated via analyses of location and regression models. The BMOM can be applied to many problems where the form of the likelihood function is unknown. For example, in a regression model, certain assumptions permit evaluation of post data moments, which can be used to form post data densities for the parameters, in turn allowing post data point estimates and intervals for the parameters. With some additional assumptions, the BMOM can also produce post data predictive densities for future observations, leading to optimal point predictions and predictive intervals. These predictive densities are compared to those yielded by a traditional Bayesian (TB) approach which uses an assumed form for the likelihood function, and alternative BMOM and TB models are compared based on other criteria as well. Dr. Zellner received an A.B. from Harvard University, followed by a Ph.D. from the University of California at Berkeley in 1957. He held academic positions at the University of Washington and the University of Wisconsin-Madison before joining the faculty at the University of Chicago in 1966, where he is currently H.G.B. Alexander Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Economics and Statistics at the Graduate School of Business. He is a Fellow of the ASA, the Econometric Society, and two other professional societies, and was the founding editor of the ASA's Journal of Business and Economic statistics and one other journal. He has published four books in the area of econometric methods. He also has a myriad of important research contributions, some in famous practical applications, and his diverse journal publications are almost too numerous to count. Don't miss this excellent program! Please register by 4PM on Thursday, November 6. -Art Roth ------------------------------------------------------------------------ WHAT'S FOR LUNCH? The luncheon menu for the meeting is indicated below. If you have any special dietary needs or prefer an alternative meal, please specify on registration form or contact Imke Janssen via phone or email. ENTREE: Chicken Breast on Rice Pilaf with Grilled Vegatables DESSERT: Vanilla Ice Cream BEVERAGES: Regular/Decaf Coffee, Hot/Iced Tea At the luncheon, if an attendee orders an entree, dessert, or drink which has not been prearranged through Imke Janssen, then NIC/ASA will bill the attendee appropriately. -Audrey Hutchcraft ------------------------------------------------------------------------ BOOK GIVEAWAY The Awards & Recognition Committee will recognize the importance of attending our chapter meetings by giving a new statistics book at each meeting to a registered participant who will be selected under the SRS(N,1) sampling plan. (N is the number of registered particpants who have completed a meeting registration form and are present at the time of the drawing.) The book awarded at the November 13 meeting is "Applying Generalized Linear Models", by James K. Lindsey. The random drawing will be performed by the chair of Awards & Recognition Committee and a volunteer from the audience. - Sam Hedayat ------------------------------------------------------------------------ PRESIDENT'S REPORT: NEW BENEFITS TO REFLECT INCREASE IN NIC MEMBERSHIP Our membership is growing! Right now we have 181 members, and this number will probably increase after the fall meeting. This represents a dramatic increase of 40% over the last year. We want to encourage all members to continue attending on a regular basis. To provide an added bonus to members attending our local chapter meetings, the NIC-ASA intends to donate a new statistics textbook to be raffled off at each meeting, though we make no absolute commitments in this regard beyond the upcoming meeting. Attendees who complete a meeting registration form and are present at the time of the drawing will be eligible. The book offered at the November 13 meeting is "Applying Generalized Linear Models", by James K. Lindsey. Donna Kowalski, NIC-ASA Membership Chair, reports that the NEW 1997 NIC-ASA Member Directory will be sent out later this month. Everyone who has paid dues for 1997 will receive a complimentary copy. At the fall meeting (see related article in this newsletter), we will be holding our annual election of new officers for the NIC-ASA. One candidate will be running for each position and brief biographical summaries appear in this issue of the newsletter. Thanks goes to Art Roth for putting together the slate. We hope to see all of you at the November meeting! -Molly Walsh ------------------------------------------------------------------------ TREASURER'S REPORT (9/29/97) BALANCE 5/9/97 $5587.77 INCOME 1997 Summer Workshop/Memberships $5968.50 Bank Interest 22.02 TOTAL INCOME $5990.52 EXPENSES Mailing (Summer Newsletter) $ 188.89 1997 Summer Meeting 6347.68 Directory survey mailing 23.04 TOTAL EXPENSES $6559.61 BALANCE 9/29/97 $5018.68 1997 Membership: 183 (173 regular, 10 student) 1998 Membership: 1 (prepaid) -Imke Janssen ------------------------------------------------------------------------ AWARDS & RECOGNITION National Front: During the 1997 round of ASA Fellows selection, we nominated two members from our chapter. I am very excited and pleased to announce that Dr. Joan Chmiel was selected as a 1997 Fellow of ASA. Our deepest congratulations to Joan. Our Chapter colleague, Dr. Alfred W. Rademaker, played a key role in this successful nomination. Although we did not win the full support of the Committee for our other nomination, Dr. Constance F. Citro, the Committee chair wrote us, "Dr... was given a rating that was very close to the top score among not elected, so the Committee would like to encourage renomination as soon as the case for the nominee can be strengthened." Local Front: Several members of our Chapter helped our student members in many different ways. I would like to acknowledge and thank these colleagues for their continuous support of our student members. The list includes: Drs. Lawrence Lin and Harold Sargent from Baxter Healthcare Corp., and Drs. Robert Dillard, David Jordan, and Sheela Talwalker from G.D. Searle & Co. -Sam Hedayat ------------------------------------------------------------------------ JOIN US ON THE WEB! Remember to check out the NIC-ASA homepage on the internet, at: http://homepage.interaccess.com/~mlcarn/nic.htm Special thanks to Mike Carniello, for his devoted effort in updating the homepage. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ CANDIDATES FOR ELECTION OF OFFICERS OF THE NIC-ASA For President-Elect - Philip Pichotta Philip Pichotta is a Senior Statistician in the Clinical Statistics Department at Abbott Laboratories Pharmaceutical Products Division. He previously worked at Lederle Laboratories for 5 years and Smith-Kline and French Laboratories for 1 year. He graduated with a B.S. in mathematics and chemistry from the University of Wisconsin-Platteville. He attended graduate school at Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University and completed all coursework for a Ph.D. in statistics. He is a member of the ASA and is serving as Membership Chair of the Biopharmaceutical Section. He is a charter member of the NIC-ASA and served as chapter secretary from 1989-1993. For Secretary - Imke Janssen Imke Janssen is a consultant at the Northwestern Medical School. She has previously held academic positions at the University of Maryland, Argonne National Laboratory, the Illinois Cancer Center, and Northwestern University. Imke received her Ph.D. from the University of California-Berkeley. She has been on the program committee of the NIC-ASA and served as the chapter's treasurer for the past year. For Treasurer - Donna Kowalski Donna Kowalski is a Senior Statistician in the Preclinical Statistics Department at G. D. Searle & Co. Her current responsibilities include support to pharmaceutical development, analytic development, product discovery and drug metabolism. She has co-published three papers in these areas and was an invited speaker at the national Pharmaceutical Technology Conference for her expertise in Cleaning Validation in a Solid Dosage Form Pilot Plant in 1997. Donna received an M.S. in statistics from Northern Illinois University in 1990. She has served as newsletter editor for one year and is currently membership chair for NIC-ASA. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ OPEN POSITIONS (2) SENIOR BIOSTATISTICIAN, COLLEGE OF AMERICAN PATHOLOGISTS (Northfield) The Biostatistics Department at the College of American Pathologists is seeking a Senior Biostatistician to consult with pathologists and other clinical laboratory professionals on applied and theoretical statistical issues. Areas of interest include interlaboratory testing, standardiza- tion, quality control and regulatory use of statistics. Knowledge of SAS and/or S-Plus software is required. Good communication skills, both written and verbal, are essential. Applicants should have an advanced degree in statistics with consulting experience in a bio-medical environment. The College of American Pathologists (CAP), a non-profit specialty society of nearly 15,000 pathologists, is dedicated to enhancing the practice of pathology and improving the quality of laboratory medicine. Contacts with other specialty societies and with government agencies place the CAP at the center of a large body of dedicated professionals, performing research important to all of medicine. The CAP offers a competitive salary, comprehensive benefits package, and a pleasant non-smoking environment. Interested applicants may send a resume with salary history to: Molly Walsh, Ph.D., College of American Pathologists, 325 Waukegan Road, Northfield, IL 60093. This material may also be faxed to Dr. Walsh at 847-832-8181. MANAGER, AGGREGATE PLANNING, AMERITECH (Hoffman Estates) This position reports to the Director of Business Planning of Force and Load for Customer Provisioning and Maintenance, and its primary focus is to develop a regional force planning view. The goal is understanding what (including weather factors) stimulates demand in order to develop accurate models for forecasting it, undoubtedly with the help of new data collection ideas which will result from this understanding. The forecasts will be used to decide how many technicians are needed at any given time and to help with daily scheduling of almost 10000 technicians in about 500 garages in a 5-state radius. Currently, high level models are applied at an area region level to data collected from 5 states (33 area regions). The Manager, Aggregate Planning will be responsible for creating new models and making current models more useful by bringing data collection techniques to a city level and ultimately to a garage level. This position is highly visible and entails regular interaction with interdependent Ameritech business units, and a seamless exchange of data between business units is critical. This position requires good modeling skills and expertise in time series analysis and forecasting. Excellence is also necessary in analytical skills and proven applied statistical experience, especially in creating models, as well as written and verbal communication and presentation skills, and computer skills. Minimum requirements are a B.A. in a closely related discipline and 2 to 5 years of experience. Strong pluses include an MBA, a mathematics background, and experience in telecommunications. This position at Ameritech comes with significant opportunity for advancement, as well as a generous base salary with bonus opportunity and a competetive, comprehensive benefit package. Respond to Cindy Noah, H.R. Initiatives, Inc., W5589 Briarwood Rd., Elkhorn, WI 53121, 800-900-4536 (phone), 414-742-4537 (fax). ------------------------------------------------------------------------ OFFICERS AND COMMITTEE CHAIRS PRESIDENT AND CHAPTER REPRESENTATIVE Molly Walsh (847) 832-7549 mwalsh@cap.org PRESIDENT-ELECT AND PROGRAM CHAIR Art Roth (847) 982-4775 ajroth@skcla.monsanto.com SECRETARY Dorothy Dunlop (847) 467-1622 ddunlop@nwu.edu TREASURER Imke Janssen (847) 491-0691 ijanssen@bayes.stats.nwu.edu PAST-PRESIDENT Mike Carniello (847) 982-8750 mike.l.carniello@monsanto.com ARRANGEMENTS Audrey Hutchcraft (847) 270-5393 hutchca@baxter.com AWARDS AND RECOGNITION Prof. A. S. Hedayat (312) 996-4831 hedayat@uic.edu COMMUNITY ACTIVITIES Paul Coe (708) 524-6640 coepaul@email.dom.edu MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY Donna Kowalski (847) 982-8533 donna.l.kowalski@monsanto.com NEWSLETTER EDITOR Terry Walsh (630) 307-1112 walsh29@mail.idt.net OUTREACH COMMITTEE Lawrence Lin (847) 270-5394 linl@baxter.com ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Statfax is published three times a year, in Spring, Summer and Fall, by the Northeastern Illinois Chapter of the American Statistical Association. Statfax welcomes letters and material for articles from its readers. ADDRESS CORRESPONDENCE TO: Terry Walsh, NIC Newsletter Editor c/o Research & Data Services, Inc. 255 E. Lake Street, Room 313 Bloomingdale, IL 60108 email: walsh29@mail.idt.net PLEASE SEND ADDRESS CHANGES (including email) TO: Donna Kowalski, NIC Membership Directory Statistics Department A-1E 4901 Searle Parkway Skokie, IL 60077 email: donna.l.kowalski@monsanto.com The Chapter's purpose, as stated in its Constitution, is "to foster statistics and its applications and promote the interests of the statistical profession...". Accordingly, diverse views are presented. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the officers or the policies of the Chapter.